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Initially, the former US president gave the impression to embrace a resolute position regarding the Ukrainian conflict. After delivering warnings of "serious consequences" during the summer if Vladimir Putin persisted obstructing peace talks, the former president ultimately enacted substantial restrictions on Russia's primary energy firms, Rosneft and Lukoil. This action significantly impacted Putin's capability to finance his war effort in Ukraine.

But, through his latest comprehensive peace plan for the conflict, which was drafted by American and Russian diplomats lacking Ukrainian or EU involvement, the former president has clearly gone back to his pro-Putin approach.

Rewarding Invasion

This initiative would in practice favor Putin for invading a sovereign nation while putting the country's democracy in peril. Although strong statements that "The nation's autonomy will be upheld", large portions of the proposal in reality undermine that very sovereignty. Seen as a Kremlin dream would certainly be a Ukrainian nightmare.

Reflecting his business past, the former president seems to treat the Ukrainian conflict as a mere territorial dispute, implying handing Russia a portion of Ukraine's soil will satisfy the leader. Yet, Russia's military campaign is not only about occupying a destroyed swath of industrial-devastated area in the Donbas region. It is about Ukraine's political system – and Putin's obvious desire to eliminate it so it ceases to functions as an appealing model for the Russian citizens of the democratic government that Putin's deepening dictatorship withholds them.

Land Giveaways

Although keeping in place the already divided regions of Zaporizhzhia and Kherson, the proposal would compel Ukraine to give up all of this eastern territory. Beyond rewarding the Russian Federation with land that its troops have been failed to seize in exceeding a lengthy period of fighting, this surrender would leave Ukraine's defenses critically undermined.

Donetsk is the location of Ukraine's well-known "fortress belt", the entrenched defensive positions that constitute a critical obstacle to enemy progress. The proposal would have the Ukrainian military abandon these fortifications, giving Putin a clear route to Kyiv should he subsequently decide to resume the hostilities.

Military Reductions

Then, in a move that would enable future hostilities simpler for Russia, the plan would require the nation to reduce the size of its military from their current 800,000 to 850,000 personnel to a cap of 600,000. Significantly, Trump's plan sets no equivalent limits on Russian forces.

Apparently as a accommodation to Putin's attempts to portray the nation's chosen by the people leadership as extremists, Trump's plan asserts: "Every extremist belief system and actions must be rejected and forbidden." As if to highlight this point, it requires that "Ukraine will hold political contests in this period" of a truce. At the same time, the proposal imposes no condition that Putin risk his authoritarian rule by allowing democratic processes in his own country.

Defense Commitments

To be sure, the initiative includes Russia pledge not to "invade bordering nations" and to "enshrine in legislation its position of non-violence towards European nations and the Ukrainian people". However taking into account that the Russian leadership has breached equivalent agreements in the previous instances – including the Budapest accord, in which the Russian government promised to respect Ukraine's territorial integrity in exchange for relinquishing its Soviet-era nuclear arsenal, and the previous peace deals, in which Russia agreed to a ceasefire and a return of occupied territory in the region to the government – for what reason should we believe this commitment now?

This explains the Ukrainian government has been so insistent on international security guarantees. While the initiative threatens a "immediate joint military response" if Russia resume its invasion, and states that "Ukraine will receive strong security guarantees", the details include unclear to concerning. The plan would not just deny the nation accession to NATO but also preclude Nato members from positioning military personnel on Ukraine's soil, effectively preventing the reassurance force, reportedly commanded by Britain and France, on which the Ukrainian government had been depending to stop Russia from replenishing his weakened military, restocking, and reinvading.

Global Response

An additional supplementary accord reportedly would grant Ukraine with a similar to NATO defense commitment, in which any future "major, planned, and continuous armed attack" by the Russian Federation on the country "will be treated as an attack endangering the tranquility of the allied countries." This implies a military response. However in contrast to a capable Ukraine's armed forces – the nation's most reliable defense against future hostilities – the credibility of the parallel accord would depend on the dedication of Nato leaders, including the US administration, to act militarily to Russia's attacks, a response they have {not