Starmer's Allies Launch 'Stop Andy Burnham' Effort to Thwart Mayor's Commons Return

Close associates of Labour leader Keir Starmer have reportedly set in motion a coordinated campaign to prevent Andy Burnham, the Labour Greater Manchester Mayor, from securing a comeback to the House of Commons. This action comes after the resignation of a Manchester MP, which has prompted an impending byelection.

Major Obstacles in the Selection Process

Multiple members on the Labour Party's ruling NEC have reportedly suggested it would be virtually impossible for Mr. Burnham to navigate the selection process. This is primarily due to the significant number of Starmer loyalists on the body who are anxious to avoid any future challenge to Starmer's leadership.

The party apparatus is said to have mobilised following the revelation of the MP's intended departure, with party figures and MPs raising concerns about the considerable financial cost and electoral danger of a resulting mayoral race in Greater Manchester.

Burnham's Ambitions and Party Concerns

Andy Burnham has made no secret of his political ambitions. Previously, he prompted outrage in Downing Street and among senior ministers when he stated that many MPs had encouraged him to stand for the party leadership.

It has long been believed that he is aiming for a return to parliament to possibly stand for the party leadership should a contest to Sir Keir arise. However, allies of the Greater Manchester Mayor have cautioned against overstating the level of any planning, stating he is deeply committed to his job as mayor and would solely re-enter national politics if he felt he had something to contribute.

"People want to paint him as scheming and plotting but that’s absolutely not where he is. He loves being mayor of Manchester. It would only ever be an option if felt he had something to offer," a source close to Burnham remarked.

Current Climate and Public Approval

Amid opinion polls indicating Sir Keir is unpopular and many MPs pessimistic about Labour's fate at the next election, Andy Burnham is seen as the only prominent Labour personality with consistently positive ratings with the public.

If Mr. Burnham decide to run, multiple hurdles remain. He would need to be selected by the NEC—where the odds are stacked against him—and then win the byelection against competition from Reform and independent candidates, all before any possible leadership challenge.

Efforts to Block Burnham

Senior Labour sources have indicated that a "Stop Andy" campaign is already under way, with the party's organisation being closely managed by key allies of the Prime Minister.

The Prime Minister himself said that the by-election procedure was in its "early stages" and told his MPs to cease discussion of potential contests for the leadership.

Andy Burnham, speaking before the MP's departure was confirmed, said to journalists: "People shouldn’t rush to conclusions. I have been very focused on my role as mayor of Greater Manchester."

Costs and Risks

Figures on the committee have reportedly cited not only personal opposition towards Mr. Burnham but also the prohibitive cost of a by-election for mayor in Greater Manchester. This could divert an estimated £500,000 in party funding from other crucial elections across the country.

"It is deeply selfish of Andy to want to run for this – costing us tens of thousands we don’t have and diverting activist resources... It is absurd beyond description and cannot be allowed," one source said.

A number of sources also shared fears about Reform UK attempting to win the mayoralty created by Mr. Burnham, which would represent a significant political win for them.

Role of the Unions and Democratic Concerns

Being an elected mayor, Mr. Burnham would require the NEC's permission to stand. There is also speculation the committee could impose an women-only shortlist to block his nomination.

Yet, one Burnham ally warned against assuming the NEC would simply reject him, despite Sir Keir's team is largely believed to control it.

The trade unions occupy a significant number of seats on the NEC. While the biggest unions are for now keeping their counsel, sources suggested they would be uncomfortable with anything seen as interference from Downing Street.

The general secretary of the Fire Brigades Union stated: "It would be a democratic outrage if Andy Burnham was blocked... Our union will fiercely resist any attempts to stitch up the selection. It’s vital that there is a full and open democratic procedure."

By-election Battle

The constituency in question has a sizable Labour lead. However, Reform UK is likely to launch a significant challenge, building on support in one part of the constituency. Labour assesses it is on stronger footing in the larger Greater Manchester section, though it could face some pressure from independent candidates.

If Mr. Burnham re-enter the Commons, he would need the support of 80 Labour MPs to mount a leadership challenge, a hurdle that is not guaranteed given he is regarded with caution by a number of on the backbenches.

The resigning MP stated he was resigning due to declining mental health, which had made it impossible for him to carry on in his role. He also remains under a parliamentary standards investigation concerning his membership in an inappropriate online group.